ISRAEL–IRAN CONFLICT UPDATE Timestamp: 2:00 PM IDT, June 18, 2025 Coverage Window: 2:00 AM – 2:00 PM IDT

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• IAF precision airstrikes hit both TESA Karaj workshop and Tehran Research Centre, destroying advanced centrifuge rotor production and assembly buildings.

• Additional strikes targeted missile component plants, Khojir missile production complex, and IRGC-linked military sites in western Tehran.

• Satellite imagery and IDF statements confirm a coordinated wave involving over 50 fighter jets, striking approximately 20 key sites including centrifuge, missile component, and radar facilities.

• Earlier overnight, a surface-to-air missile successfully downed an Israeli surveillance drone over Iran, with no reported damage to its payload.

🚀 Iran’s Missile Response: Limited & Ineffective

• Iran responded with a small hypersonic and ballistic missile salvo early today, estimated at fewer than 15 total weapons, possibly only a handful.

• Most incoming missiles were successfully intercepted by Israel’s layered air defense systems.

• At most one missile scored a near miss near IDF HQ in Tel Aviv, and another struck the Haifa oil refinery, with no reported civilian casualties.

• Overall, Iran’s missile volley marked one of its weakest retaliatory efforts to date, both in scale and effectiveness.

⚠️ Ayatollah Khamenei’s Warning

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “no mercy” for Israel, warning that any U.S. involvement would spark an all-out war.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that American military support for Israel could trigger regional retaliation and irreversible escalation.

📉 Strategic Analysis

• Striking deep at nuclear and missile production hubs (Karaj, Khojir, Tehran) shows Israel is extending influence beyond enrichment facilities to destroy support ecosystems.

• Drone interception indicates Iran still retains some air defense capability, but this remains secondary to the broader Israeli campaign.

• Meager Iranian missile activity signals resource constraints, growing caution, or possible deterrence from U.S. positioning, suggesting Iran may be conserving assets.

• Khamenei’s rhetoric aims to reinforce internal cohesion and deter U.S. escalation, but risks international backlash if U.S. assets are targeted.

🛑 Bottom Line

• Since 2:00 AM, Israel has intensified its campaign, crippling Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing and missile production infrastructure deep in Tehran with high-volume, precise strikes.

• Ensuing Iranian retaliation was limited and largely intercepted.

• While Tehran warns of total war if the U.S. enters, America’s forward deployments may have tempered Iran’s response.

• The battlefield dynamic continues to shift. Israel is widening the strike zone, Iran’s offensive punch is blunting, and the risk of misstep remains high.